Senate: 7 Majority Minority Districts and Purple

View Map on Dave's Redistricting (https://davesredistricting.org/join/12e88766-5579-4d2d-b53f-eabcef01ae7b)

Testimony and Map Submission for Legislative Reapportionment Commission: State Senate Maps 2021 7 Majority Minority Districts and a Very Purple District For Northern Montgomery County I live in Lower Frederick Township—Montgomery County. (Note: I submitted a version of this testimony earlier…this time, the accompanying map is posted through the portal). A good fair map would reflect that there are areas in Pennsylvania that will always elect a Republican while there are other areas in Pennsylvania that will always elect a Democrat. A good fair map will also reflect the purple areas. Purple areas should be drawn so that so that the outcome of the election swings with the allegiances of the purple voters. These purple areas would allow Pennsylvania’s state legislature to be responsive to the shifts in priorities of Pennsylvania voters. Purple areas would force candidates of all parties to appeal to the voters in the middle and because representatives from purple areas would have to answer to their “purple” voters, they would have to be purple in Harrisburg…Such reps would force compromise, moderation, and they would counter the dysfunction that we have unfortunately come to expect. My township is the epitome of purple. We are just on the bubble of development…go east and the land is “suburban sprawl”. Go west and the land is still rural. We have voted for Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. For our congressional rep, we voted for Madeleine Dean in 2018 and then for Kathy Barnette in 2020. Our supervisors are a mix of R and D as are our township volunteers. I decided to draw a state senate map because I wanted to see if my area of Montgomery County was as purple as I suspected. It is! Once I had drawn my own bright purple senate district, I decided to continue the effort. I made sure that all districts were contiguous and I tried to avoid splitting municipalities and counties. Occasionally, the decision not to split led to a district that was less compact than I might have liked. And occasionally, I had to split a sparsely populated rural county due to population deviation and/or to try to prevent a district from stretching too far. I was pleased that only one district (15) split more than two counties. And this district was the direct result of keeping the Lehigh Valley (Northampton and Lehigh) to three senate districts. I was also pleased that no county (no matter the size) had to share more than two of their senators with other counties. To the best of my knowledge, no townships were split. I drew districts with the understanding that even though statewide voting favors Democrats, statewide geography and where people live favor Republicans. I’ve come to understand that this geography naturally gives Republicans a 5-6% advantage in seat bias (half the difference in seats at a 50% vote share). I drew a map that landed in that range. I believe that it is very important for districts to provide opportunities for our state senate to look like Pennsylvania voters. The current senate map has 8 districts where white people make up less than 63% of the Voting Age Population (VAP). Four of those districts were drawn to be “majority minority” meaning that white people make up less than 50% of the VAP in a district. Those same 4 districts are the only districts that also exceed the 37% race specific Voting Age Population for any community of color. I find the term “majority minority” to be really weird as the minority is not the minority if it’s a majority. So, going forward, I will refer to such districts as “white minority”. When I worked on my map, I found that to achieve a 37% race specific VAP for a senate district, the district also had to be “white minority”. The map I drew features 11 districts having less than 63% white population. Of those 11, 7 are “white minority.” And of those 7, ALL seven have race specific Voting Age Populations of more than 37%. 6 are Black and one is Hispanic. One such district that gave me pause was a district that connected SW Philadelphia with South Philadelphia. Because the connections across the Schuylkill River aren’t great, a senator should probably have a district office on both sides of the river. I also wondered if the district should cross what some call a “no-man’s land”. It turns out that people live right next to the “no-man’s land”. And I think that what happens in the so called “no man’s land” very much affect the people who directly border the "no-man's land". Allowing people who border the “no man’s land” to share a district would, I believe, amplify their voices about their concerns for the use and misuse of the area. Finally, when I drew this map, I started with a blank slate and I did not give any consideration to any incumbents. I knew only that my own senator lives in Marlborough Township. It is very likely that this map will force incumbents to run against each other in some districts while other districts won’t have an incumbent. I did not bother to number districts in a way that “made sense” and they are numbered in the order in which they were created. If parts of this map were to be adopted, it would make sense to make sure that the “squeakers” in which the composite winner wins with less than 51% of the vote were divided between even and odd districts. In that way, very purple districts will be split between mid-term elections and presidential elections. Currently, most purple districts are numbered “even” so those elections happen during the mid-terms when fewer people vote. I am sure that you will be given a bunch of maps that fit the criteria of a “good” map in terms of county splits, majority minority districts (or white minority districts), compactness, contiguity, population deviation... When choosing from the “good” maps, choose one where: • The seat bias falls between 5 and 6% to mirror but not exceed the natural geographic bias towards Republicans. • The Pennsylvania Senate has an opportunity to “look like” Pennsylvania voters • Purple areas can elect purple reps. Use the partisan data to help make sure that those purple areas are truly purple—not red, not blue—just purple. And with any luck, those districts will be “duking” it out for the voter in the middle and we’ll send some moderates to Harrisburg. And with any real luck, my township will end up in one of those purple districts. Thank for considering my testimony and for considering the ideas put forth in this map.

Quantitative Analysis

Number of Counties Split
24
Total Number of County Splits
42
Reock compactness
.44
Polsby-Popper compactness
.37
Overall Deviation
3.88
Average Absolute Deviation
1.5