LRC Testimony Solutions: Submissions 2766/3017
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This proposed modification to the LRC's preliminary plan amends House districts in Centre, Cumberland, Dauphin, Juniata, Lycoming, Mifflin, Snyder, and Union Counties. These changes reflect many comments posted to the Commission website, as well as recent live testimony, particularly objections to the following aspects of the LRC Draft: (1) Division of Juniata and Mifflin Counties (and a consequent clash of incumbents in HD82); (2) Separation of Union and Snyder Counties. (3) Alleged gerrymandering of HD84 and other districts in Lycoming and Centre Counties; (4) Division and misalignment of school districts in the Williamsport area; (5) Extension of HD103 across the Susquehanna River from Harrisburg to eastern Cumberland County; (6) Division of school districts in Dauphin County. The affected districts are HDs 76, 77, 82-89, 103-106, 125, 171, 193, and 199. The LRC map is otherwise intact. This amendment combines and harmonizes two prior "LRC Testimony Solutions" submissions, items 2766 and 3017. Accordingly, much of the commentary below is drawn from those entries. Note that many changes related to Submission 3017 are needed to offset the disruptive shift of 30,000 residents from HD103 to districts based in Cumberland County. If the Commission considers its current rendering of HD103 satisfactory, there is no need for such a broad revision. Submission 2766 addresses the other topics effectively, with fewer changes. Together, the proposed changes achieve the following goals: (1) Juniata and Mifflin are reunited, to the maximum extent compatible with district population limits, in HD82. This change also averts a clash between Republican incumbents. (2) Union and Snyder are joined, to the extent possible within population limits, in HD85. (3) The compactness of districts anchored in Lycoming and Centre Counties has been substantially improved. (4) The revisions in Lycoming also accommodate the many requests to reunite Montoursville with its school district, and to separate those towns from Williamsport. (5) HD103 no longer crosses the Susquehanna. Instead, HD125 makes a less controversial crossing in the Duncannon area, where the Susquenita School District also reaches from Perry to Dauphin. (6) Divisions of school districts in central Dauphin County have been minimized. With regard to #5, note that HD125 could reach east, reclaiming part of its former territory in Schuylkill County from HD107, rather than west across the river. Doing so would extend the impact of this revision into HD107 and HD108, toward a river crossing closer to Sunbury. This option was explored and ultimately judged inferior, but can be provided to the Commission on request. Further note that, in order to avoid contests between incumbents, minor compromises. Specifically, the close proximity of Reps. Hamm and Wheeland in Lycoming and Reps. Gleim and Rothman in Cumberland posed challenges for HDs 83, 84, 87, and 199. Nonetheless, the compactness of the map as a whole surpasses that of the LRC draft. (See note on core metrics below.) Meanwhile, as mentioned in submission 2766, the three compact Centre County districts may pose a practical problem. Each district is occupied by a single incumbent, as preferred; but two members - one from each party - would see their reelection prospects diminished. The Commission may wish to consider this effect. Core metrics improve somewhat: the DRA compactness score rises by two points. The splitting score rises by a point, although the total number of county splits remains the same, at 184. DRA's minority score drops a point, because HD105 absorbs less-diverse precincts in Lower Paxton to reduce splits of municipalities and school districts. Indicators of partisan bias suggest that, in aggregate, these changes have a slight Democratic lean. This small effect could be offset with a Republican-leaning change elsewhere, e.g. https://www.redistricting.state.pa.us/comment/submission/2657 or https://www.redistricting.state.pa.us/comment/submission/2623.